Serveur d'exploration sur la COVID en France

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Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France.

Identifieur interne : 001020 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001019; suivant : 001021

Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France.

Auteurs : Henrik Salje [France, Royaume-Uni, États-Unis] ; Cécile Tran Kiem [France] ; Noémie Lefrancq [France] ; Noémie Courtejoie [France] ; Paolo Bosetti [France] ; Juliette Paireau [France] ; Alessio Andronico [France] ; Nathanaël Hozé [France] ; Jehanne Richet [France] ; Claire-Lise Dubost [France] ; Yann Le Strat [France] ; Justin Lessler [États-Unis] ; Daniel Levy-Bruhl [France] ; Arnaud Fontanet [France] ; Lulla Opatowski [France] ; Pierre-Yves Boelle [France] ; Simon Cauchemez [France]

Source :

RBID : pubmed:32404476

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.

DOI: 10.1126/science.abc3517
PubMed: 32404476
PubMed Central: PMC7223792


Affiliations:


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Le document en format XML

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<author>
<name sortKey="Dubost, Claire Lise" sort="Dubost, Claire Lise" uniqKey="Dubost C" first="Claire-Lise" last="Dubost">Claire-Lise Dubost</name>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Le Strat, Yann" sort="Le Strat, Yann" uniqKey="Le Strat Y" first="Yann" last="Le Strat">Yann Le Strat</name>
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<name sortKey="Lessler, Justin" sort="Lessler, Justin" uniqKey="Lessler J" first="Justin" last="Lessler">Justin Lessler</name>
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<region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Levy Bruhl, Daniel" sort="Levy Bruhl, Daniel" uniqKey="Levy Bruhl D" first="Daniel" last="Levy-Bruhl">Daniel Levy-Bruhl</name>
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<name sortKey="Fontanet, Arnaud" sort="Fontanet, Arnaud" uniqKey="Fontanet A" first="Arnaud" last="Fontanet">Arnaud Fontanet</name>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Opatowski, Lulla" sort="Opatowski, Lulla" uniqKey="Opatowski L" first="Lulla" last="Opatowski">Lulla Opatowski</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Anti-infective Evasion and Pharmacoepidemiology Team, CESP, Université Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, INSERM U1018, Montigny-le-Bretonneux, France.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
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<name sortKey="Boelle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boelle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boelle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boelle">Pierre-Yves Boelle</name>
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<region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
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<name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France. simon.cauchemez@pasteur.fr.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
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<region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
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<title level="j">Science (New York, N.Y.)</title>
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<term>Adolescent (MeSH)</term>
<term>Adult (MeSH)</term>
<term>Aged (MeSH)</term>
<term>Aged, 80 and over (MeSH)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (immunology)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (mortality)</term>
<term>Cost of Illness (MeSH)</term>
<term>Critical Care (MeSH)</term>
<term>Female (MeSH)</term>
<term>France (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Hospitalization (statistics & numerical data)</term>
<term>Humans (MeSH)</term>
<term>Immunity (MeSH)</term>
<term>Male (MeSH)</term>
<term>Middle Aged (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pandemics (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (immunology)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (mortality)</term>
<term>Quarantine (MeSH)</term>
<term>SARS Virus (MeSH)</term>
<term>Young Adult (MeSH)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Adolescent (MeSH)</term>
<term>Adulte (MeSH)</term>
<term>Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH)</term>
<term>Coûts indirects de la maladie (MeSH)</term>
<term>Femelle (MeSH)</term>
<term>France (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Hospitalisation (statistiques et données numériques)</term>
<term>Humains (MeSH)</term>
<term>Immunité (MeSH)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (immunologie)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (mortalité)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Jeune adulte (MeSH)</term>
<term>Mâle (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pandémies (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale (immunologie)</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale (mortalité)</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Quarantaine (MeSH)</term>
<term>Soins de réanimation (MeSH)</term>
<term>Sujet âgé (MeSH)</term>
<term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus (MeSH)</term>
<term>Virus du SRAS (MeSH)</term>
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<term>Coronavirus Infections</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral</term>
</keywords>
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<term>Infections à coronavirus</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale</term>
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<term>Coronavirus Infections</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral</term>
</keywords>
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<term>Coronavirus Infections</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral</term>
</keywords>
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<term>Infections à coronavirus</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale</term>
</keywords>
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<term>Hospitalization</term>
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<term>Hospitalisation</term>
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<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.</div>
</front>
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<DateCompleted>
<Year>2020</Year>
<Month>07</Month>
<Day>16</Day>
</DateCompleted>
<DateRevised>
<Year>2020</Year>
<Month>08</Month>
<Day>06</Day>
</DateRevised>
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<Journal>
<ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1095-9203</ISSN>
<JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet">
<Volume>369</Volume>
<Issue>6500</Issue>
<PubDate>
<Year>2020</Year>
<Month>07</Month>
<Day>10</Day>
</PubDate>
</JournalIssue>
<Title>Science (New York, N.Y.)</Title>
<ISOAbbreviation>Science</ISOAbbreviation>
</Journal>
<ArticleTitle>Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France.</ArticleTitle>
<Pagination>
<MedlinePgn>208-211</MedlinePgn>
</Pagination>
<ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1126/science.abc3517</ELocationID>
<Abstract>
<AbstractText>France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.</AbstractText>
<CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.</CopyrightInformation>
</Abstract>
<AuthorList CompleteYN="Y">
<Author ValidYN="Y" EqualContrib="Y">
<LastName>Salje</LastName>
<ForeName>Henrik</ForeName>
<Initials>H</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0003-3626-4254</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
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<LastName>Tran Kiem</LastName>
<ForeName>Cécile</ForeName>
<Initials>C</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0003-0563-8428</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Collège Doctoral, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
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<LastName>Lefrancq</LastName>
<ForeName>Noémie</ForeName>
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<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
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<LastName>Courtejoie</LastName>
<ForeName>Noémie</ForeName>
<Initials>N</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0001-9703-7851</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>DREES, Ministère des Solidarités et de la Santé, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
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<LastName>Bosetti</LastName>
<ForeName>Paolo</ForeName>
<Initials>P</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<LastName>Paireau</LastName>
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<Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-5143-6256</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint-Maurice, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
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<LastName>Andronico</LastName>
<ForeName>Alessio</ForeName>
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<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Hozé</LastName>
<ForeName>Nathanaël</ForeName>
<Initials>N</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>DREES, Ministère des Solidarités et de la Santé, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<LastName>Dubost</LastName>
<ForeName>Claire-Lise</ForeName>
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<Affiliation>DREES, Ministère des Solidarités et de la Santé, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint-Maurice, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<LastName>Lessler</LastName>
<ForeName>Justin</ForeName>
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<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<LastName>Levy-Bruhl</LastName>
<ForeName>Daniel</ForeName>
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<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint-Maurice, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
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<LastName>Fontanet</LastName>
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<Affiliation>Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>PACRI Unit, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
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<LastName>Opatowski</LastName>
<ForeName>Lulla</ForeName>
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<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Epidemiology and Modelling of Antibiotic Evasion Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Anti-infective Evasion and Pharmacoepidemiology Team, CESP, Université Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, INSERM U1018, Montigny-le-Bretonneux, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<LastName>Boelle</LastName>
<ForeName>Pierre-Yves</ForeName>
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<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
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<LastName>Cauchemez</LastName>
<ForeName>Simon</ForeName>
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<Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0001-9186-4549</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France. simon.cauchemez@pasteur.fr.</Affiliation>
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